A Consumer Spending Dynamic Worth Watching For Equities

Consumer spending has been strong all year as trends from e-commerce to services have led to a more balanced spending profile by Americans. Bill Baruch breaks down what that means for the stock market and the Fed.

    Bill Baruch, President & Founder, Blue Line Futures


with the move that we’ve had a continued consolidation at minimum, I mean, that’s that’s healthy. We could see a little bit of pullback. Nothing moves in a straight line. But here is to say to their point around Thanksgiving and a little bit after around Christmas and a little bit after we can see a little bit of softness in the market, I wouldn’t be surprised at some points to see a little bit of pullbacks.

Bears get a little excited. But at the end of the day, and I did point to the stronger data today from building permits and housing starts at the end of the day, I do think the data continues to slow. The real question is the consumer, and I’m confident the consumer is going to slow in November and December. I think holiday spending tightens up.

You look back at retail sales, which came in strong this week, You look back, we’re not not really a strong number, just better than expected. But if you look back at retail sales, November, December of last year, we really tightened up and that’s when people actually saved money to replenish the pocketbook from traveling all year. So I think that we could see that that’s going to be a gift to the Fed, to be gift to the market.

There’s going to be volatility. There’s going to be days that we kind of see the market gyrate around. But I mean, right now I’m not seeing anything that says we have a pullback. Yeah, I mean, we’re not really seeing anything as of now

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