July Market Commentary
Overview U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, gained 2.2% in July, marking the third consecutive month of gains. The Russell 2000 Index of U.S. small-cap stocks ended the month up 1.7%. In contrast, U.S. intermediate-term bonds, represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, finished July roughly flat, down 0.3%. Preliminary […]
Macro & Market Trends 6.30.2025
June Market Commentary
The quarter began not with a fizzle, but with a bang. On April 2, the U.S. governmentannounced sweeping tariffs: a baseline 10% on nearly all imports and higher ratestargeting specific countries.1,2 This brought the average U.S. tariff rate to 22.5% (from anaverage of around 2.4%)—the highest level in over a century.3,4 On April 9, a […]
May Market Outlook
OverviewU.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, gained 6.3%, the strongest May return since 1990 when the index rose 9.3%. Similarly, the U.S. small-cap Russell 2000 Index ended the month up 5.3%. In contrast, U.S. intermediate-term bonds, represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, declined 0.7% in May.Updated
April Market Outlook
Markets fluctuated throughout April in response to tariff announcements. Despite notable intramonth swings in both directions, U.S. large-cap stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, ended the month down just 0.7%. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks U.S. small-cap stocks, declined 2.3%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, gained […]
Blue Line Market Outlook (2025-Q2)
March 2025 Market Commentary
U.S. equity markets faced a challenging first quarter. U.S. large-cap stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, ended the first three months of 2025 down 4.3%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index declined 9.5%. This marked the worst quarter for both U.S. large- and small-cap stocks since the second quarter of 2022. In contrast, U.S. […]
February 2025 Market Commentary
Markets produced mixed results in February. U.S. large-cap stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, ended the month down 1.3%, while the U.S. small-cap Russell 2000 Index ended February down 5.3%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds fared well, as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 2.2%.
Macro & Market Trends
Overall, the U.S. economy remains resilient, with respectable preliminary Q4 GDP growth estimates, continued expansion in the ISM Services PMI, a durable labor market, and signs of growth in the manufacturing sector. U.S. stocks underperformed international counterparts in January, with the S&P 500 closing the first month of the new year up 2.8%. As anticipated, […]
January 2025 Market Commentary
Markets produced compelling gains in the first month of 2025. U.S. large-cap stocks, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, ended January up 2.8% while the U.S. small-cap Russell 2000 Index gained 2.6%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds, as represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, ended January up a modest 0.5