Bill Baruch Sees a Path Higher for Amazon If AWS Keeps Accelerating
Bill Baruch thinks Amazon can dig out of its recent weakness. CapEx is the elephant in the room, but his focus is AWS and whether growth keeps re-accelerating. He says a print in the low 40s percent would send shares higher. He also wants a better timeline on CapEx, since pulling spending in from 2028 […]
Bill Baruch Expects a Hold Today and Fewer Hikes Next Year
Bill Baruch says the key for the Fed is anchoring inflation expectations, and he thinks Chair Warsh has talked tough enough to get there. He acknowledged inflation has run hotter than expected, but argues much of it comes down to energy, and monetary policy is not a tool to combat energy inflation. That is why […]
Bill Baruch Raises Cash to Lean Into Year End, Starting With a Meta Trim
Bill Baruch says the team trimmed Meta to raise cash and keep flexibility through the midterms and into year end. He expects the market to do terrific into January and wants room to lean into names he really likes. On Meta, he wanted excitement behind earnings and did not get follow through on the Muse […]
On a Limb – Bill Baruch Calls Low in Bonds
Bill Baruch thinks bonds are building a bottom. He called the Treasury sell-off a quick move, pointing to window dressing and the carry trade, and says the worst of the selling looks to be behind us barring a hot jobs report. He also flagged the bullish percentage index for the S&P 500, which sits at […]
Bill Baruch Buys Mitsubishi Heavy on Japan’s Industrial Renaissance
Bill Baruch says an industrial renaissance may be developing in Japan, the biggest since maybe World War II, and that is why he bought Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The team trimmed industrials by roughly 25 to 30 percent in mid-July, and while he likes names it already owns like United Rentals and Eaton, he decided to […]
Bill Baruch Trims Apple to Lean Into the Mag Seven Breakout
Bill Baruch is trimming Apple in a concentrated portfolio because the valuation has reached the upper band of its historical range. He is not sour on the name. The team leaned in heavily during May and June and traded it up to a 14 percent weighting, and with Apple up more than 20 percent this […]
Bill Baruch’s Final Trade: Tempus AI
Bill Baruch went with Tempus AI as his final trade. He described it as a small healthcare technology company with a great management team working to cure cancer, and he added it to portfolios as a starter position last week. Watch the full discussion here.
Bill Baruch Says the Odds of a Hike Next Week Are Too High
Bill Baruch maintains that a 70 percent probability of a Fed hike next week is too high, and he does not think Warsh moves through with it. He sees it as the Kansas City Shuffle he has been flagging for a couple of months, where early hawkishness set the probabilities and the follow-through never comes. […]
Bill Baruch Steps Aside on Amer Sports and Buys Walmart
Bill Baruch is out of Amer Sports, taking the win after being long from 19. He still likes the brands and sees secular trends behind Wilson, Arc’teryx and Salomon, but the China stimulus tailwind got eaten away by tariffs and compressed margins, and the stock started breaking down even after a good earnings report. He […]
Bill Baruch Sees Significant Value in the Miners and a Complement to Bonds
Bill Baruch runs a mining portfolio focused on gold with some silver, and after a heavy reversal in gold he still sees significant value in the space. His case rests on the fundamentals holding up. Costs have remained stable even with energy prices moving higher, and output is solid. That is why he views pullbacks […]