The odds of an interest rate cut in march are a coin toss, or 53% as reflected by the CME Fed Watch tool. Here’s what will determine the path of interest rates in 2024. 

Yeah, it’s I mean, I think fourth quarter, if we go up there, the ten year is going to be a ceiling. It’s unless something drastically changes.

I think as we move into March it’s going to be somewhat of a coin flip. However, the Fed is talking off of their missing comments right now, I think, from Fed President Bostic saying there’s no no rate cuts until the third quarter. So, I mean, the markets are reacting. I mean, we’re going to continue to play this game, but the Fed will continue to push back.

And there’s probabilities they probably got ahead of themselves with seven rate cuts as coming in, coming through December into January. But as we evolve, I do think the market’s going to stay on the table. The question is going to be jobs and the jobless claims print today, 187,000. I think that’s going to be a low print for for weeks or months to come.

I think that that right there is some of the revisions and whatnot takes place around the turn of the year. Not surprised that December’s non-farm payroll report was strong. Not surprised that we’re seeing some jobless claims stay pretty low right now. I expect a lot of that to change in the coming weeks. We’re seeing deterioration in New York manufacturing, Philly Fed manufacturing.

So I think the economy, I don’t expect a recession. I think we’ll just we’ll just see some slower growth, but steady, slower growth. Okay, fair enough. I want to actually switch gears, if we can,